Modern Family
For It: Modern Family is one of the few comedies (and certainly the only new comedy) with something for everyone. Traditional household foibles are mixed with a du jour mockumentary style and sharply rendered characters for an experience that wisely never trips into pretension or treacle. To my eyes, the show's greatest feat is that each of its couples seem real; Phil and Claire Dunphy freshen up the "blithely unaware dad"/'"neurotic mom" combo, Cam and Mitchell combine reason and moments of pure caricaturization (both could qualify to be primetime's next Liz Lemon), and Jay and Gloria Pritchett function superbly in their delirium.
Against It: It's a terribly funny show, but is it too understated to win against a bacchanal of light and sound like Glee?
Odds: 3:1
Glee
For It: Ryan Murphy's fanatic-attractant musical has introduced at least one classic character who's destined for the pop culture annals (the betracksuited Sue Sylvester) and can boast an eminently bankable soundtrack. With its superstar roster of guest stars and fans (even Madonna voiced her approval), Glee is the most jovial (and slyly cynical) juggernaut around.
Against It: Though Glee is 2010's biggest new phenomenon, the show has garnered a reputation for uneven storylines and characters. Also, aside from Sue Sylvester's off-kilter timbre, is this show even (ahem) funny?
Odds: 5:1
30 Rock
For It: Though some have carped, the three-time winner for Best Comedy Series didn't have a bad year by any stretch, giving us classic moments in dealbreaking, bawdy Boston accents, and one particularly uproarious glimpse into Tracy Jordan's beginnings. Even among the new crop of contenders, 30 Rock has the best ensemble of characters on television -- maybe ever.
Against It: If there was ever a year for a three-time victor to cede its crown, it's 2010. 30 Rock is fabulous, but this is a year where it looks like newcomers will storm the dais.
Odds: 10:1
Curb Your Enthusiasm
For It: After a million seasons, Curb is still waiting for its first Emmy win in the big category. Its critically hailed year of Seinfeld reunion romps could mark a sensible occasion for an eighth-season underdog victory.
Against It: The Emmys send a message with each winner they declare, and a victory for Curb may suggest the dubious statement, "We're out of touch with what everyone is excited about."
Odds: 20:1
The Office
For It: Jim and Pam's wedding was a bearably sweet, even hysterical episode, and the right note to strike when setting up the series for a less-than-snide future.
Against It: The Office's best days are clearly in the past. The biggest reason: All the characters are too damn happy. What happened to our melange of downtrodden commentarians? Leave whimsy to the jivesters of New Directions.
Odds: 20:1
Nurse Jackie
For It: Edie Falco is almost a sure thing in the acting category, and her performance makes the show. Therefore, using the commutative properties of Emmy logic, the show should be a sure thing too, right?
Against It: Even in a year where I'm relieved Entourage didn't pick up another nomination, I'm still perplexed by Nurse Jackie's nod. Are The Big Bang Theory and United States of Tara still too quirky for real recognition?
Odds: 40:1