Hint: It's a trick question. Which isn't to say there might not be a few surprises in today's Weekend Forecast, but you're going to need to see some serious attrition and infighting from the five new wide releases (not to mention an avalanche at the art house) before Stallone and the boys will give up their testosterone throne. Let's check out the radar...
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
· Piranha 3D: The remake of Joe Dante's 1978 cult classic trades its post-Jaws, aquaparanoiac cheese for an even more shameless riff on modern-era exhibitionism and exploitation -- "Don't go on the beach," as opposed to "Don't go in the water." Ultimately, of course, no place is safe, the grand theme in director Alexandre Aja's crushingly nihilistic career to date. At least America's 18-25 male quadrant will get to see tits (stereoscopically!) on their ways out of this mortal coil, and there's an unusual amount of anticipation and goodwill for what amounts to a Roger Corman updating -- so much so that I like Piranha 3D to surge beyond expectations to a weekend not too far off the Expendables' $14 million track. But still off. FORECAST: $13.2 million (Movieline's full review forthcoming today.)
· Nanny McPhee Returns: Who knew she was ever here in the first place? As mentioned, you might be surprised: The original Emma Thompson family film pulled in $47 million domestically, earning another $75 million abroad for a very tidy, very profitable run through the winter doldrums in 2006. It opened in second place then with $14 million (just couldn't get over that Big Momma's House 2 hump, alas), but age will wear and Thompson's nude frolics will only go so far to achieve the same stature. FORECAST: $12 million
· Vampires Suck: Apocalyptically loathing reviews aside, the latest genre parody from Friedberg and Seltzer (Date Movie, Meet the Spartans) does have a pretty ripe field for picking -- if not qualitatively with walking punchlines like Taylor Lautner et. al., at least quantitatively with the population of moviegoers whose hormones pull them to vampire/werewolf crap like vultures wait for a wayward desert traveler to drop. Ring the bell, dinner is served. FORECAST: $11.3 million [Five-day gross: $16.5 million]
· Lottery Ticket: Warner Bros. dips into the urban market with the tale of a young Foot Locker retailer (Bow Wow) who must outlast the weekend -- and a deep ensemble including Ice Cube, Charlie Murphy, Loretta Devine and many more -- with a multimillions-winning lottery ticket under his belt. Fittingly, the film must outlast the weekend with a deep ensemble of films that will conveniently brush it aside at the multiplex. It's too bad, too; this might have had a little bigger lift in either of the next two, less congested weeks. Anyway. FORECAST: $10.1 million (See Movieline's review here.)
STORM WARNINGS
· The Switch: God, another opening? At least this one has some actual stars, and it might have some date-night potential -- for dates, that is, who don't have a hankering for coed-devouring fish. Which is probably most dates, actually, but that's only part of the problem. The real issue here is that here's you've got a reasonably serviceable romcom-ish tale of a man (Jason Bateman) who drunkenly switches his sperm into his female BFF's (Jennifer Aniston) babymaking plans, only to have the studio fold not long after production and thrust the film into dumpy limbo. At least they're marketing it, I guess, but it's not like these actors' faces have some Pavlovian influence of separating moviegoers and their cash. Not when they can see Piranha 3D, anyway. I wish I could be more optimistic. FORECAST: $7.4 million (See Movieline's review here.)
THE PRIME DESTINATION
Did I mention Piranha 3D is opening this weekend? What's the worst that can happen? I mean, even if you hate it, Adam Scott will pay you a visit. It's just dumb, gloriously gory, late-summer skeeze without the aged self-seriousness or HGH. You know? And we've got to make the people of Lake Havasu feel like all their trouble was worth it.
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
· The Agony and Ecstasy of Phil Spector (expanding to LA): Eerie, captivating
doc about the infamous producer/songwriter turned convicted killer. Highly recommended, if only because its borderline abuse of fair-use law will probably get it banned from DVD. (See Movieline's review here.)
· Altiplano (NYC): Moral drama about Peruvian mountain villagers who backlash against Western doctors after a lethal outbreak of mercury poisoning from the nearby mine.
· Army of Crime (NYC): More moral drama, this time addressing a band of resistance fighters taking on the Nazis in 1943 France.
· Brotherhood (expanding to LA): Danish moral drama about a gay-bashing neo-Nazi grappling with -- surprise! -- his own homosexuality.
· Calvin Marshall (NYC): Indie coming-of-age flick about the title character, a junior-college baseball hopeful whose enthusiasm exceeds his talent. But can he at least get the girl?
· A Film Unfinished (NYC/LA): Yael Hersonski's devastating doc glimpse at the Nazi propaganda efforts to depict the Warsaw Ghetto as anything but a hell on Earth. (See Movieline's review here.)
· Hiding Divya (NYC): Three generations of Indian-American women deal with bipolar disorder and culture clash in New Jersey.
· Jean-Michel Basquiat: The Radiant Child (expanding to LA): Tamra Davis's mostly definitive (if stunningly poorly produced; who forgot to pick up the microphones?) documentary about the late, legendary '80s-era painter.
· Making Plans For Lena (NYC): Features Chiara Mastroianni as a 30-something single mother grappling with the day-to-day issues of family, exes and survival in Paris.
· Mao's Last Dancer (NYC/LA): Vanity biopic about ballet star Li Cunxin and his ascendancy from Red Chinese nobody to Western dance powerhouse. (See Movieline's review here.)
· Modern Love is Automatic (NYC): A nurse-turned-dominatrix and her roommate bound through modern life in Zach Clark's gutty no-budget indie.
· The Scenesters (LA): Satire of indie filmmaking culture, Los Angeles narcissism and the local phenomena that orbit and influence both.
· Soul Kitchen: (NYC) Fatih Akin goes light with his fast, loose (and acclaimed) restaurant dramedy. (See Movieline's review here.)
· The Tillman Story (NYC/LA): Powerful exposé about the friendly fire killing of NFL star-turned-Afghanistan casualty Pat Tillman. (See Movieline's review here.)