Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
For: As much as Bryan Cranston is a deserving winner in the lead actor category for a third straight year, it's Aaron Paul who's shown the most depth and versatility on Breaking Bad's third season. Walt, Cranston's character, has become a pillar of evil; Paul's character Jesse has weighed more moral and emotional conundrums than we ever expected of him, and in his nominated episode "Half Measures," we watch as Paul evinces gall, smarts, the boisterousness of a gunfighter, and sheer insanity. Perhaps the best performance of any acting nominee this year.
Against: It's difficult to tell how much Lost's final season will influence voters. That said, Emerson and O'Quinn are Paul's only real competitors.
Odds: 3:1
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
For: Let's be clear: O'Quinn's nominated episode, "The Substitute," is his best chance for a win. Here we watched a new "Sideways Locke," a hardened yet sensitive spirit, emerge and ostensibly outclass the dead Locke back on the island. O'Quinn's self-assurance and touching performance validated the potential within the far-out world of "sideways" plotting.
Against: Could it be a knock against O'Quinn that he already picked up this award in 2007? With Emerson also fighting for a win, the vote will inevitably split.
Odds: 5:1
Michael Emerson, Lost
For: In Emerson's nominated episode "Dr. Linus," we explore the Beta-verse version of Dr. Linus (and therefore two different performances from Emerson), and we witness a barrel full of the Alpha version's nefarious savvy. "Dr. Linus" also marked that character's shift into the audiences' favor -- even if he remained untrustworthy. Within the episode's mix of tiered storylines, there's a lot of juicy character work.
Against: Emerson's win last year won't work against him here, but O'Quinn's superior episode probably will.
Odds: 8:1
John Slattery, Mad Men
For: Slattery's character Roger Sterling's past illuminated during his nominated episode "The Gypsy and the Hobo." We learn that Roger spent time in Paris in the '30s cavorting around cemeteries and embracing a less-than-Fifth Avenue approach to life. The way he deflected dog food heiress Annabelle was scathingly real -- and showed a sense of restraint we didn't know Roger had in him.
Against: Much as I love Roger Sterling, his character amounts to "amusing" most of the time. This was his best storyline all season, but it so pales in comparison to fellow nominees like January Jones, whose Don-wringing was the devastating part of the same episode.
Odds: 20:1
Martin Short, Damages
For: Like a number of the other nominees, Short's nominated episode reveals plenty of sinister detail about his character. Startling bits about Lenny's blackmailing father and the death of his mother come to the fore. Short's delirium is, not so unsurprisingly, perfect for this role.
Against: Damages's pay-cable future designate it as a show on the way out. And in a year when so many honorees seem "owed" an award, Short should be sated with a nomination.
Odds: 20:1
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age
For: Braugher won a surprise Emmy for his role as Dt. Pembleton on Homicide: Life on the Street during its final season. On Men of a Certain Age, he plays a decidedly less fiery, even wilted suburbanite whose subtlety is a refreshing change of pace from the whizz-bang of most TNT series.
Against: Unfortunately, Men of a Certain Age is not on anyone's radar. With the seasons Breaking Bad and Lost have had, he doesn't stand a chance.
Odds: 40:1