Notable Snubs: Chloe Sevigny, Big Love, Khandi Alexander, Treme
1. Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
For Her: Peggy Olsen is the reason Mad Men is interesting. You can reduce Don Draper's mystique to lies, smarts, and an unresolved upbringing, but Peggy isn't so easy to boil down: really, she's the most spontaneous and maddening character in the series. She's now spent three seasons figuring out how womanly she's allowed to be in the swaggering speakeasy of Sterling Cooper (as Don Draper fling Bobbie Barrett once noticed and commented upon), but her arc is still subverted by the Aspergian social graces that make her more intriguing than a traditional underdog. In Moss's nominated episode, Peggy rolls her eyes at the agency's new ad for Patio soda and scoffs at the Ann-Margret copycat who stars in it. Here, she proves she knows Sterling-Cooper's clientele better than her co-workers, as well as what women want. Pure Peggy power.
Against Her: Moss's switch from a lead actress contender to a supporting actress is smart, but some may believe her character's moments of revelation are less invigorating than co-star Christina Hendricks' va-va-voom ferocity. They'd be wrong, but they're voting and I'm not. She's also up against serious Emmy heavyweights who've been nominated up to 10 times before.
Odds: 3-1
2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
For Her: An Emmy favorite since her award-winning days on Cybill, Baranski strikes just the right note as liberal senior partner Diane Lockhart -- she's finally found an addictively brooding drama that's perfect for the boardroom-ready snarl we've come to associate with her characters. In Baranski's submitted episode, the anti-gun Diane consults with a conservative ballistics expert who she starts to fall for. Complexity!
Against Her: The Good Wife is serviceable three-star drama, but to reward two wins in the acting department (since lead Julianna Margulies is all but a shoo-in) is overkill.
Odds: 5-1
3. Sharon Gless - Burn Notice
For Her: Remember what I said about 10-time Emmy nominees? That title belongs to Gless, who earned nods on Cagney & Lacey, The Trials of Rosie O'Neill, and even a short stint on Nip/Tuck. She also deserved (but never received) mentions for her work as empathetic PFLAG powerhouse Debbie Novotney on Queer as Folk, a series that would've buckled without her. On Burn Notice's third season finale, Gless gives us outright Emmy bait: an emotional outburst from her character Madeline Westen, who is arrested and acquainted with a big slice of the truth about her son Michael, to whom she devotes much neuroticism and Novotneyian concern.
Against Her: It's a big episode for Gless, but after two years of award-season veterans earning the big trophy (Dianne Wiest in '08 and Cherry Jones in '09), it's time for the academy to recognize newer talent in the supporting actress field.
Odds: 10-1
4. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
For Her: There's no doubt that Joan Holloway is a crowd favorite among Mad Men devotees, as she reigns over the secretarial pool and humanizes herself by comforting her terrible husband Greg, a budding surgeon who is told he "has no brains in his fingers." In her nominated episode, "Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency," Joan shows off domestic smarts and whip-smart office instincts when assessing the lawnmower accident of the century, and even enjoys light-hearted badinage with serial scowler Don Draper.
Against Her: Others rank Hendricks higher since her episode gave Joan the screen time and dimension her comeliness has demanded since season one, but I believe Elisabeth Moss's character arc is ultimately more interesting. Joan's general infallibility (Matthew Weiner almost never wants us to dislike her) makes her less magnetic than Peggy.
Odds: 15-1
5. Rose Byrne - Damages
For Her: She's been nominated twice now, and Byrne's character Ellen Parsons is both conniving and engaging. In her submission episode, Ellen has us wondering how safe Patty's secrets are with Ellen -- and if Ellen has forgiven Patty after all. A great premiere.
Against Her: Damages has seen better days, and Ellen's dramatic turns now often seem more pulpy than impressive.
Odds: 20-1
6. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife
For Her: Without Archie Panjabi, the character of Kalinda Sharma might seem dull in a contrived, sub-Jill Hennessy way. But Panjabi's eyebrow jolts and self-satisfied quips came a long way during The Good Wife's first season, and in her nominated episode "Hi," Panjabi scintillates as she cracks a murder case and assists Peter (Chris Noth) with testimony during his hearing.
Against Her: See: Christine Baranski's "Against Her." Panjabi's character could stand to develop more in a season that mostly served to buttress voter sympathies for Margulies, and it could be said that Panjabi's nomination displaced the more deserving Chloe Sevigny.
Odds: 25-1