In today's edition of Emmy Spotlight, Movieline takes on the Best Actor in a Drama category. Could Friday Night Lights's Kyle Chandler steal a win away from heavy hitters Bryan Cranston and Michael C. Hall, or will the Lost finale earn Matthew Fox his first win off of his first nomination? Join us for a rundown of the odds.
Notable snubs: Simon Baker, The Mentalist, Timothy Olyphant, Justified, Clarke Peters, Treme, Kiefer Sutherland, 24,
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
For Him: The world knows that Breaking Bad's third season was its best, with one of the most harrowing, brain-splitting finales of the past decade. In a TV landscape awash with antiheroes, the character of Walter White is unquestionably the most chilling. Cranston deserves this one even more than his previous two now that Walter's already-monstrous instincts have turned murderous.
Against Him: Choosing Cranston for the win would be an act of defiance for the Emmys, who'd be voting against the gaining speed of the under-rewarded Michael C. Hall.
Odds: 2:1
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
For Him: With a Golden Globe under his belt, Hall is completely formidable for the win. Dexter has the strange ability to get more addictive the longer its on, so the narrative momentum works in his favor too. Hall's submitted episode, where he tracks down and kills Trinity, is one of his best displays of screen command.
Against Him: Cranston! It's difficult not to draw up a Venn Diagram and match Walter's unhinged quirks with Dexter's, but I think you'd come to only one conclusion: Walter is more unnervingly (and impressively) twisted.
Odds: 4:1
Hugh Laurie, House
For Him: Like clockwork, Laurie's new nomination is no surprise. He has yet to win the award after four other nominations, but his submission episode is the surreal season opener where he's just about the only actor we see in a two-hour mental ward trip. If this stark character examination won't win him the Emmy, nothing will.
Against Him: It's pretty difficult to win an overdue Emmy when your series has famously seen better days.
Odds: 7:1
Matthew Fox, Lost
For Him: The Lost finale was Fox's best ever performance, and his first nomination is long overdue. If you were along for the ride of Lost, Fox's work on the finale was perhaps more satisfying than the limbo metaphor that tied up the series for good.
Against Him: But again, it's his first nomination. Of all the ways to honor Lost as it exits our living room portals, a lead acting win may be a longshot. Fox will have to channel the power of Andre Braugher to make it work.
Odds: 10:1
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
For Him: Mad Men is hip to love and hipper to nominate. Matthew Weiner's characters are engrossingly dark portraits preserved in cellophane, and Jon Hamm's Don Draper is the hardest candy of the bunch. In Hamm's nominated episode, Don admits to Betty that he's not Don Draper at all, which resulted in a storm of tears unseen since one of Sally's outbursts on behalf of Uncle Gene. It was Hamm's most vulnerable moment yet.
Against Him: There's something about that well-varnished exterior that sometimes makes Don Draper seem more like a shell of a great character than a fully realized being.
Odds: 15:1
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
For Him: Someone woke up at the Emmy factory and decided Friday Night Lights was invited, and now we can expect a flood of appreciation to head its way. Emmy night could be the beginning of the show's recrowning as the best drama on TV.
Against Him: With all these finale performances and freakish protagonists clogging the running, Chandler needs to amp up his following and wait another year to win.
Odds: 15:1