Movieline's parade of Emmy judgment calls continues with our investigation of the Best Actress in a Drama Series category. Dynamite vets like Glenn Close and Mariska Hargitay grace the shortlist this year, but they'll be up against undaunted newcomers like Connie Britton and Julianna Margulies (in her second Emmy-nominated role). Monologues ready, ladies! Let's score the odds and dish some hardware.
Notable Snubs: Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy, Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
For Her: The Good Wife is a series built for well wishes: Julianna Margulies is a consummately likable star, Christine Baranski is an oft-misused TV fixture, and anytime Chris Noth wins a role with more dimension than the agonizingly flat Mr. Big, I approve. Still, even with that bedrock of audience support, The Good Wife surpasses expectations, and as the exasperated Alicia Florrick, Margulies is a sympathetic presence that the camera loves.
Against Her: The Good Wife's protagonist isn't a ready-built legend like Patty Hewes, and frankly, voting for Glenn Close is never a bad idea.
Odds: 2-1
Glenn Close, Damages
For Her: Close's two consecutive wins set her up for top contention again this year, and she still has the ability to make Patty Hewes a surprising character time and again, even after the series' initial fervor has withered to pay-cable ranks.
Against Her: Please, the Emmys are saving this year's threepeat for Bryan Cranston.
Odds: 5-1
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
For Her: Sedgwick has never won before, and the Emmys are clearly dying to give a trophy to her. She landed a nomination over the indefatigable Holly Hunter, for chrissakes.
Against Her: There's no argument for Sedgwick to outplay Glenn Close. Period.
Odds: 8-1
January Jones, Mad Men
For Her: Mad Men has yet to walk off with an acting win, even if it has triumphed in the dramatic series category for two years running. Season three was Betty Draper's best, as it gave her a chance to read Don the riot act and gussy up in '60s couture for her romp in Italy.
Against Her: Besides Movieline's Christopher Rosen (stay tuned), no one thinks January Jones is the show's top thespian. It's all about Jon Hamm, Elisabeth Moss, and little Vincent Kartheiser (who has yet to earn a nomination).
Odds: 10-1
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
For Her: Someone with fancy cufflinks and an Emmy ballot realized that FNL is superb TV, and now the show's cool factor is competitive with AMC's winners.
Against Her: Though Britton should have garnered multiple nominations by now, voters will still think it's too soon to award her ahead of a bankable, triumphant draw like Margulies.
Odds: 10-1
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
For Her: She took home the award in 2006 (beating out our president Geena Davis), and Law & Order: SVU remains compulsively watchable, even as its plots get downright silly.
Against Her: When you win an Emmy in a particularly uncompetitive year, there is very little chance you will win again years later against stellar colleagues. SVU is the worst series in this lineup, and Hargitay's performance is the most predictable.
Odds: 20-1