Notable Snubs: Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty, Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Jane Lynch - Glee
For Her: A universally respected, under-rewarded comic actress outshines a cast of cherubs and becomes a household name. What is there not to vote for? Jane Lynch legitimizes Glee's effervescence, single-handedly making the show a viable Emmy contender. Without her, Glee would be early-evening Nickelodeon fare with an iTunes presence.
Against Her: Sue Sylvester may be a tracksuited Dorothy Parker, but Jane Krakowski's delirium as Jenna Maroney is funnier, line for line.
Odds: 1:3
Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock
For Her: Krakowski's nominated episode, where her character Jenna auditions for a part on Gossip Girl only to find she's playing a grandmother who is dying of "old age," gives us all the desperate self-importance and grim comeuppance we love about this character.
Against Her: Riots will ensue if Jane Lynch doesn't win.
Odds: 5:1
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
For Her: Phil Dunphy is the most irreplaceable member of Modern Family's family tree, but Gloria Delgado Pritchett is a close second. And as evinced by her creative reading of the Emmy nominees, we could expect her acceptance speech to teem with hysterics and discombobulation. I'd vote for that.
Against Her: Modern Family is a breakout hit, but its female cast members haven't enjoyed breakout episodes yet. Vergara needs to up the sauciness if she's going to outmatch Jane Lynch.
Odds: 10:1
Kristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live
For Her: Wiig has cultivated a reputation for single-handedly carrying Saturday Night Live and following in the footsteps of Emmy-nominated kooks Gilda Radner and Molly Shannon. If anyone's going to finally land SNL's second Emmy win for an actress in the cast (only Radner has won the award before), it'll be her.
Against Her: She chose the James Franco-hosted episode for Emmy submission, and it's really more of a showcase for Fred Armisen. His "Penny Marshall as TNT's The Looker" is the night's funniest moment.
Odds: 10:1
Julie Bowen - Modern Family
For Her: Though literally every word out of Gloria's mouth is funny, Claire Dunphy is a more fully realized character. Her nominated episode, "My Funky Valentine," shows off Bowen's prowess in convulsive neurotics and physical humor.
Against Her: See Sofia Vergara's "Against Her."
Odds: 20:1
Holland Taylor - Two and a Half Men
For Her: A win in the comedy category would make her the second actress in history to win both the comedy and drama supporting actress Emmys (the first is Doris Roberts). Emmy voters are nothing if not giddy statisticians.
Against Her: Now is not the time to star in a multicamera sitcom or a Charlie Sheen anything.
Odds: 40:1