By this time tomorrow the multiplexes of the United States will be sinking into their foundations, overstuffed with millions of swooning viewers soaking up Iron Man 2. Professional prognosticators and casual box-office observers alike take this as their cue to size up the opening weekend -- particularly the film's chance to topple The Dark Knight's record $158.4 million three-day from 2008. We're no different at Movieline, where I've rounded up my seasoned colleagues Kyle Buchanan, Mark Lisanti and Christopher Rosen for a brief bit of shot-calling.
Kyle: I definitely foresee a $150 million-plus weekend take for Iron Man 2. Our most recent films that set single-day or weekend records -- New Moon, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Dark Knight -- all had massive appeal, and yet I can't help but think that Iron Man 2 tops them all when it comes to that demographic holy grail: four-quarter interest. And that marketing campaign? Tops. I had a lot of problems with the movie, and yet every time I see an ad, I watch the whole thing and think, "I want to see that." Those commercials are quick, breezy, and confident. I wish the movie had half of the marketing campaign's verve.
Mark: According to rough calculations derived from the steady intake of information provided by theatrical trailers, advance critical reviews, and greasy paper bags touting the arrival of the BK Whiplash Whopper, Iron Man 2 features 100% more Don Cheadle in an indestructible metal suit, 44% more panty-melting Robert Downey Jr. drollery, 61% more indistinguishable AC/DC songs salvaged from The Razor's Edge recording sessions, 28% more bowel-perforating explosions, and, depressingly, 100% less Jeff Bridges. (Boo.) Combining these hastily compiled statistics with a more reliable data point, the fact that the original Iron Man took in $98 million in its opening weekend, IM2 will boost its take to $136 million. I could show you the math, but whatever. Trust me, it's based on the very sound principle of box office prognostication known as "blowing nonsense out of your ass."
Christopher: The hype machine is in full swing, but I still have a hard time believing that Iron Man 2 will break The Dark Knight's record for opening weekend gross. First of all, it doesn''t have the added benefit of IMAX saturation like The Dark Knight did. Second, it doesn't have the car wreck value of Heath Ledger's "Did the Joker make him OD?" performance. And third, it doesn't have Batman, who under any metric is a bigger hero than Iron Man. Three strikes. Tack on the added demerit of not even being in 3D, and you've got the recipe for a massive blockbuster but not a record-breaking one: $130 million.
STV: I can't see Iron Man 2 opening with any less than $140 million, but I don't know about booting The Dark Knight off the top of the hill. On the one hand Chris is right about IMAX delivering the Bat-nudge Knight needed to hit $15.4 million. On the other, well, there are the data: IM2 has 275 more screens than its predecessor did in 2008, so that kind of cancels IMAX out. If you factor in the first film's per-screen average with the extra theaters, you're talking about $6.6 million alone. But IM2 won't do a mere $24K per screen; it'll do more like $34K. That puts it at $148.9 million, give or take a couple million either way for dueling "I can wait" vs. "marketing overload" factors. That's as good a number as any, though, so hey. Shot, meet call.