There have only been two American Idol seasons where a foregone conclusion actually came to pass -- seasons three and four, when Fantasia Barrino and Carrie Underwood exacted pitch-perfect ascents to the Idol coronation ceremony. Since then, we've had some sneaky wunderkinds weasel their way to the top: Kris Allen and his acoustic turnabouts won season eight; Jordin Sparks and her youthful trills toppled Melinda Doolittle in season six. And now, in season ten, Casey James could be on his way to derailing the long-favored Crystal Bowersox. Sound crazy? Not when you consider why voters go to pick up the phone.
While Kris Allen and Casey James aren't exactly alike, parallels are easy to draw: Both arrived in the Top 24 with little fanfare, relatively smaller voices, and a surprising ability to make most songs their own. Kris's stellar "To Make You My Love" rendition is much like Casey James's revelatory "Jealous Guy" performance -- intimate, guileless, and a resonant statement of individuality. They established themselves as balladeers who eschew schmaltz and stay current, all without pandering to expectations. Also like Kris, Casey's great performances build the excitement around his unassuming nature. That snowballing momentum is the kind of following that reaches maximum impact near the Top 2's final hour.
When Crystal Bowersox nails a performance, the level of voter fervor is simply reaffirmed (like it was with Adam Lambert, to continue the metaphor). It also doesn't help that Crystal -- again like Adam -- picks expected songs. When you weigh a building support group (like the one Casey seems to have, even if he's hit the bottom three a couple times) against a sated one like Crystal's, good timing can intervene in time for a climactic takeover.
In the next two weeks, Michael Lynche and Aaron Kelly seemed destined for departure -- the former has exhausted his post-Judges' Save cachet, and Aaron Kelly is the least self-assured of the remaining five. Lee DeWyze remains the only real threat to Casey's entry into the Idol finale, but to be blunt: Is anyone excited about Lee? He's been dogged with pitch issues since day one, his radio niche is overpopulated, and he's unable to emote past an anxious eyebrow jolt. As Casey grows more comfortable with whatever the judges have to say, Lee squirms, much like we all did when he brought in that bagpipe from the sky. Lee would lose soundly to Crystal Bowersox in the finals, and at this point, all Idol diehards want is a redeeming finale. Casey's sly smarts and laissez-faire performance style would provide that thrill just in time to compensate for an otherwise limp season.