Now that American Idol has separated the mellifluous wheat from the pitchy chaff, culling its contestant pool from its initial 3.5 million contestants to a top 12, things are finally, in the parlance of philosopher-judge Randy Jackson, "getting a millionty billionty percent real, dawg." For the unlucky amongst this ultimate dozen, wild dreams of worldwide superstardom are about to be crushed under the heel of a thousand-dollar Simon Cowell loafer and replaced with more measured aspirations to careers on the cruise-ship circuit, where weeks of national exposure lands one the headlining position on the Pacific Princess' Lido Deck Idol Revue. So whom amongst the remaining Idols can we expect to see battling deep into May, and whom should be loading up on seasickness pills for an upcoming maritime musical adventure? Here's how we handicap the Top 12.
Aaron Kelly
At a barely pubescent 16 years old, Kelly seems to have captured the limited imagination of the ravenous, text-happy tween audience that carried creepily pocket-sized crooner David Archuleta to a second place finish in season 7. By virtue of his resemblance to any number of harmless Disney Channel stars. the two-first-named teen should ride his pleasingly innocuous manner deeper still into the competition, barring a sudden, and uncomfortable, televised explosion into manhood that scares off the fanbase who just want to prop him up on the edge of their beds with all their other adorable stuffed animals.
Odds of winning: 4 to 1
Crystal Bowersox
Despite our almost pathological aversion to hippies (even the faintest whiff of patchouli induces a hypnotic rage-state in which we can think of nothing but smashing up head shops with pawned acoustic guitars), we can't ignore Bowersox's undeniable talent. And so we'll harbor the hope that Idol's stylists will continue to bury her Berkeley street-corner vibe in an attempt to make her more marketable to the all-powerful Idol voting demographic. (We see a fun pre-performance video package showing Bowersox picking out clip-on, magenta Hot Topic hair extensions to hide her dreads, a faraway look in her eye revealing the producers have successfully beaten the Haight-adjacent authenticity out of her) There will be, however, no diverting her from further mining the 1999 Lilith Fair set-list for musical inspiration, and she'll be ousted after reaching the final four.
Odds of winning: 5 to 1
Andrew Garcia
When you've peaked too early with something plucked from Do You Really Want To Love Me Forever: The Very Best of Paula Abdul greatest hits EP, you're toast.
Odds of winning: 30 to 1
Didi Benami
This season's undisputed, champion weeper has one of the best and most interesting voices in the competition. But the Brooke White Precedent says that she'll be sent home in late April, her once-beguiling fragility eventually freaking out too much of the voting base to make the finals.
Odds of winning: 10 to 1
Odds of crying :: 1 to 5
Casey James
James' defining moment will come three weeks from now, following a smoldering* performance of "Sex on Fire", when a giddy Ellen DeGeneres breathlessly exclaims, "You've just Coley Laffooned me back into breeder territory, dude! I'm getting all Heche-y up in here," prompting jealous, salivating cougar Kara DioGuardi to poke out both the comedian's eyes with the straw from her Coca Cola product-placement cup.
Odds of winning: 4 to 1
Odds of tell-all book alleging improper relationship with Kara: 3 to 1
[*pun dismayingly intentional]
[*also has two first names]
Katie Stevens
Adorable! But, to repeat the judges' pet criticism this season, she's Not Ready. (OMG she's totalllly ready!1!!!!111! Yaaaaayyyyy!) No! Stop that, inner tween! She's not. Ready.
Odds of winning: 20 to 1
Lee Dewyze
Jason Mraz without all that troubling edge. Second-best singer in his college dorm, after that guy who nails "Fire and Rain" every Friday night in the third-floor lounge. Likely Idol finalist.
Odds of winning: 3 to 1
Lacey Brown
It's hard not to sympathize with her tragic story: Having wandered backstage before a taping of the The Sharon Osbourne Show, the host took Brown hostage, releasing her only after remaking the talented, aspiring singer in her exact image, weeping the entire time about her disappointment with her own troubled offspring. Perhaps an outpouring of America's love can break the spell? No, even that's not likely to be enough. Heartbreaking.
Odds of winning: 18 to 1
Michael Lynche
Fun fact: "Big Mike" is kind of awesome. Still not going to win, though. If that thought bums you out, just imagine him back at home, cuddling his cute newborn baby. See? You feel better already.
Odds of winning: 9 to 1
Paige Miles
A too-frequent victim of the judges' other go-to criticism of season 9: "You don't know what kind of an artist you want to be." Just once, we'd like to hear one of the contestants sass Simon with, "I want to be the kind of artist who gets super f*cking rich off this silly karaoke contest, and the first thing I'm going to buy is a new sweater for you, Captain Manboobs." Paige Miles, your date with history awaits.
Odds of winning: 12 to 1
Tim Urban
It's going to be a poignant moment when someone finally sits down Urban and breaks the soul-shattering news. "Bro. At the end of Boogie Nights, Dirk Diggler's music career doesn't go anywhere. Sorry, man. You should've watched the whole thing."
Odds of winning: 40 to 1
Odds of not lasting the week: 1.5 to 1
Siobhan Magnus
Ladies and gentlemen, your next Amerrrrrrican Idol! Unless she completely loses her mind in the finals, deciding to toss her painstakingly arranged, mind-blowing interpretation of "Bohemian Rhapsody" in favor of scatting five minutes of digital bleeps from Radiohead's Hail to the Thief, just because she's always dreamed of doing that in front of 30 million people.
Odds of winning: 3 to 1
Odds of wandering off stage in the middle of her Rolling Stones performance tonight, then strolling back on nonchalantly and totally killing the remainder of the song: 5 to 1