As a faithful Movieline reader, we want you to win your Oscar pool this year. Still, let's be realistic: This goal is going to take determination, focus, drive, and a lot of cribbing from Movieline's fully completed Oscar predictions ballot. Read on for our informed guesses, and good luck!
- Kyle and Seth
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Will Win: It's the $500 Million Wonder vs. the Movie That Wants to Be Comfortable If It Dies. Technology vs artistry. Character design vs. character development. Ex against ex. We hand it to The Hurt Locker.
Dark Horse: Harvey doesn't like to lose: Inglourious Basterds. -SA
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Whether Hurt Locker sweeps the night or comes up short, Kathryn Bigelow is a lock to win here.
Dark Horse: Neither Jason Reitman or Lee Daniels is a threat here, and Quentin Tarantino's best shot is going to come in the Original Screenplay category. As much as James Cameron has said he doesn't want to win this particular Oscar, he's the best dark horse it's got. -KB
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Will Win: This has been a winning year for Sandra Bullock, her Razzie-caliber work and blowdryer mishaps notwithstanding. With a SAG Award and Golden Globe already in the bag, Sandy's just a few days away from her Oscar moment.
Dark Horse: There's few who have seen Gabourey Sidibe's performance who would soon forget it. If Keisha Castle-Hughes can win for Whale Rider, the girl who so devastatingly filled Precious's skin is at least as deserving. -SA
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Jeff Bridges just took part in one of the most comprehensive Oscar wooings ever conducted, but managed it with good humor and a touch of class. It's his to lose.
Dark Horse: At one point, it seemed like Jeremy Renner was a dark horse to even get nominated. Now that he's made the category, however, he has two things going for him: the momentum behind The Hurt Locker, and his position as a refreshing alternative. If the stars align, he could be this year's Adrien Brody. -KB
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious
Will Win: Mo'nique, Mo'nique, Mo'nique.
Dark Horse: Mo'nique. Oh, OK, fine -- Maggie Gyllenhaal, for her sexy, slightly brittle portrayal of a single mom who finds herself falling for the wrong guy. There was no virtually campaign for her, and yet here she is. Could another surprise be in store? -SA
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: It's in the way he stirs his coffee. Or glides between languages with the grace of a speed skater. It's in his daffiness, his brutality, his piercing intellect. Tarantino was right that he couldn't have made his film without finding Christoph Waltz, but find him he did.
Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson's Captain Tony Stone is a superb character study of a loner trying to make peace with the worst job conceivable -- yet one he can't walk away from. It's some of the best work of his career. -SA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Neil Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell and Armando Iannucci, In the Loop
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Will Win: The Up in the Air team's behind-the-podium differences seemingly behind them, it will fall to Turner to squeeze in a thumb-up and "Hi, Mom!" before the orchestra starts playing out Reitman's long list of thank-yous to himself.
Dark Horse: The emotional favorite (around here at least) goes to In the Loop, and not just because it sounds like what happens when David Mamet kicks Al Swearengen's cat. -SA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter and Bob Peterson, Up
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: This could go either to reporter and screenwriter Mark Boal's fact-based (and fact-challenged) work in The Hurt Locker, or to QT's lovable WWII revenge fantasy. But with Locker looking strong in both Picture and Director categories, this is probably where the Academy will show Quentin some love with an award for Inglourious Basterds.
Dark Horse: Don't count the Coens out. A Serious Man has serious fans. -SA
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami (Israel)
A Prophet (France)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Will Win: The White Ribbon is this year's anointed foreign language juggernaut...
Dark Horse: ...yet several Oscar pundits think the more straightforward The Secret in Their Eyes will play better to the voters. Whatever the case, blood-spurting crime drama A Prophet will come up lacking. -KB
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
Will Win: It's Pixar's visual and emotional masterpiece Up for the win.
Dark Horse: But Fantastic Mr. Fox was a truly magical moment in filmmaking, period, for 2009. Let's just say there won't be any groans around Movieline HQ should Wes Anderson take the stage in an ill-fitting corduroy tuxedo. -SA
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Will Win: Avatar had to create an entire world from scratch. If the art direction weren't the most persuasive of the year, the whole film would fall apart.
Dark Horse: The Young Victoria is the kind of film that often takes home this type of award. For the Avatar-wary traditionalist, it could be a vote-stealer. -KB
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
Will Win: Christian Berger took the cinematographer's guild trophy for his strikingly monochromatic The White Ribbon. Scribble his name onto your ballot with confidence.
Dark Horse: BAFTA winner Barry Ackroyd, meanwhile, is a strong choice for the beige-and-white canvas of The Hurt Locker. -SA
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Will Win: Sandy Powell has taken this award twice before, and The Young Victoria is exactly the movie to give her a third win.
Dark Horse: We'd love to give it to Bright Star, since costumes are integral to the lead character, or Parnassus, simply for its modern-day verve, but Nine pulled in more eyeballs and outfitted more dancing extras. -KB
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home
Will Win: The Cove is a barn-burner reminiscent of last year's Man on Wire, with the extra benefit of political and environmental edge in a category that An Inconvenient Truth once triumphed in.
Dark Horse: Food, Inc. could be a challenger here, but a voter inclined to that film is probably also going to be a fan of the more buzz-worthy Cove. -KB
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit à la Berlin
Will Win: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province is this category's tear-jerker, and that always helps.
Dark Horse: If voters want to reward homegrown relevance, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant does the job. -KB
BEST EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Will Win: The Hurt Locker won the A.C.E. Eddie Award from its guild, and it has two unbeatable elements: a Best Picture nomination, an a tightly edited action theme.
Dark Horse: Of course, so does Avatar. -KB
BEST MAKEUP
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
Will Win: Star Trek is the easy standout here.
Dark Horse: Again, The Young Victoria is a tech threat that can't be wholly counted out. There's just something about those costume dramas... -KB
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up
Will Win: Michael Giacchino is a master at what he does, and though his Up score isn't necessarily his best, he's accrued enough industry love to make run for it here. A stray few Lost-addicted voters who love Giacchino's music on that series may tip the scales.
Dark Horse: If the award was for Most Score, Hans Zimmer's Sherlock Holmes would take it simply for being so loud and distinctive. Still, Oscar regular James Horner poses the biggest threat with his work on Avatar. -KB
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take it All," Nine
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)," Crazy Heart
Will Win: **"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)"** has a story, and a compelling cowboy to tell it. We're still bummed Ryan Bingham won't get his moment on a spotlit stool in front of an audience of a billion, but he's the one to beat.
Dark Horse: For some reason, Randy Newman is to Academy members what Lady Gaga is to gay men. Let's pick one at random: "Almost There." -SA
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Will Win: You do not bet against A Matter of Loaf and Death director Nick Park, whose Wallace & Gromit shorts might as well be handed Oscars as soon as they're finished. The only time Park loses is when he's nominated against himself.
Dark Horse: The stylish Logorama has dazzled wherever it's gone. It doesn't have the heart this category usually requires, but Loaf sort of has that covered, right? -KB
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants
Will Win: It never hurts to be a fun comedy when your competition is grim (that's why comedies sell for bucketloads at Sundance), so we agree with Vulture's Bilge Ebiri that Instead of Abracadabra could have the pleasant aftertaste needed to stand out here.
Dark Horse: Still, if viewers want grim, there's always The Door. Chernobyl! Sadness! Oscar? -KB
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
Will Win: Even though it was largely heralded for being a masterpiece for the eyes, Avatar's domination of the technical categories should spill over into this category as well.
Dark Horse: Don't rule out Star Trek, however, still considered by people in the field field to have been a stellar example of the state-of-the-art in their craft. -SA
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Will Win: The taking of those sound effects and blending with dialogue and music into a cohesive aural palette is the sound mixer's job, and we hand it to Avatar's lush tropical ecosystem infiltrated by malevolent technology.
Dark Horse: Again, if anyone can tackle the 'Tar, it's Star Trek, the year's other masterful sci-fi blockbuster. -SA
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Will Win: Yeah. Avatar. Next?
Dark Horse: Mo'nique. No -- just kidding. A Star Trek win would probably upset Cameron more than a Best Picture or Director loss. So why not! Bring it on. -SA