Rocky knocking out Taxi Driver with one atomic upper-cut; a trio of Gangsta Americans collecting statuettes for their fanfare for the common pimp; one billion people asking in unison, "Marisa who?" Every year, we're promised the unexpected at the Academy Awards, but it's only when a dark horse nominee manages a stunning upset that the truly unexpected occurs. Here then, we examine four nominees with microscopic odds whose surprise triumphs could liven up this year's proceedings:
DIRECTING: LEE DANIELS for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
SURPRISE FACTOR: 10
The only way this is going to happen is if older voters confuse Daniels with Tyler Perry, who they feel is long overdue for a lifetime achievement Oscar.
DESERVEDNESS FACTOR: 3
With a body of work comprised of this and the critically maligned Shadowboxer (plus his self-professed ghost directing turn on Monster's Ball), Daniels has yet to prove he is more than a Presh-in-the-pan.
SPEECH FACTOR: 10
If Mr. Daniels has proven anything during his awards season jockeying, it's that he gives good soundbite. An acceptance speech from him could easily be a telecast highlight, if only for the delivery of lines like, "Precious is so not Obama. Precious is Rosa Parks. Precious is RuPaul. Precious is Lady Gaga, Beyoncé, Cirque de Soleil and The Land Before Time!!!!" as Halle Berry-esque tears stream down his face.
OUTRAGE FACTOR: 4
Take the number of women in the world. Minus the number of women in the world who worship at the Church of Oprah. That's how many people will be quietly outraged that Kathryn Bigelow lost to this guy. Plus Armond White.
UPSET SCORE: 27/40
BEST PICTURE: District 9
SURPRISE FACTOR: 9
The only person who called District 9 in your office pool is the after-hours cleaning lady, which explains why she mutters "lazy prawns" under her breath whenever she empties your garbage can.
DESERVEDNESS FACTOR: 6
It's an infinitely better script than Avatar's, but detractors complain the third act feels like a video game.
SPEECH FACTOR: 3
Director Neill Blomkamp is modest, considered and well-spoken, as is his low-key mentor and producer, Peter Jackson. Expect sincere shock and gratitude, solemn references to overcoming racial injustice, and not much by way of laughs.
OUTRAGE FACTOR: 2
It might not have its vocal champions in the race, but no one hates it. Quiet admiration is the overall consensus.
OVERALL UPSET SCORE: 20/40
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
SURPRISE FACTOR: 9
The second Christoph Waltz made his first satisfied milk-slurping face, this award was his. Then again, Oscar loves a good prosthetic uglification, and the stunning Tucci was really willing to go there for his craft.
DESERVEDNESS FACTOR: 2
As chilling as the dollhouse peekaboo scene was, handy killer George Harvey was just not one of Stanley's better actor/part fits.
SPEECH FACTOR: 6
Tucci can be awkwardly stiff when it comes to Oscar grandstanding (see his Today Show appearance), but all that time basking in Meryl's glow has to have rubbed off on him. Get ready for the world-weary bon mots of a slightly butcher Nigel!
OUTRAGE FACTOR: 8
First off, most everyone agrees this was a terrible movie. Also -- nobody wants to see a murderous molester win the Oscar. We want to see the vengeful dad win! (And Marky Mark is no Sean Penn.)
OVERALL UPSET SCORE: 25/40
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: The Secret of Kells
SURPRISE FACTOR: 10
The number of people outside of Ireland or Belgium who have seen The Secret of Kells numbers in the halves-of-dozens.
DESERVEDNESS FACTOR: 4
It's a very beautifully drawn film, but a little Cartoon Network in scale. The nomination is the award -- and yet! Anything can happen.
SPEECH FACTOR: 6
Who doesn't love seeing a nobody become a somebody on Hollywood's big night? Tomm Moore, come on down, you're the next contestant on Who Is This Oscar Winner?
OUTRAGE FACTOR: 9
Between all the Up-ophiles and Fox-iacs rooting for their favorites, a win for Kells could result in the members of the Academy being dropped from hot air balloon in the dead of night or flushed out of their headquarters with a high-powered hose.
OVERALL UPSET SCORE: 29/40