After two or three months of observing the generally inert culture around the 2009 Oscar race, it's not too difficult to predict who or what will remain standing when the Academy announces its nominations Tuesday morning. Mo'Nique, Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Christoph Waltz and a group of other elite, well-known front-runners might go ahead and stamp their tickets for the Kodak Theater on March 7, but after the jump, find a few others who might wake up tomorrow to a pleasant (or not-so-pleasant) surprise.
BEST PICTURE
IN: The Blind Side
OUT: A Serious Man
Despite unflagging critical support and a not-insubstantial studio campaign on the Coens' behalves, Focus Features' drama has remained suspiciously on the bubble for too long to feel good about its chances for a nomination. Supporters who point to the expanded Best Picture category as Man's safety net should look instead to the studios jockeying for that final spot -- particularly Warner Bros., which has invested plenty in the awards momentum for The Hangover and The Blind Side, both the types of hits for which the Best Picture category was doubled in the first place. And if The Hangover is gonna sneak in anywhere, it'll probably be Original Screenplay. Nothing against A Serious Man; it's just one of those years.
NOMINEES: Avatar, An Education, The Blind Side, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, Precious, Up, Up in the Air
BEST DIRECTOR
IN: Clint Eastwood, Invictus
OUT: Lee Daniels, Precious
Most prognosticators agree that Daniels will pluck Eastwood's perennial nomination for the fifth spot, and honestly, if there's one category where I'd probably accept the conventional wisdom, this would be it. Still, this is the Academy we're talking about. It takes care of its own. Don't be shocked to see a Daniels snub.
NOMINEES: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Clint Eastwod, Invictus; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
BEST ACTRESS
IN: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
OUT: Helen Mirren, The Last Station
I've gone on and on here here about Apparition chief Bob Berney's Oscar-season wizardry, which has always worked best in this category and which you should expect to push Blunt into the final five. But even without Berney in Blunt's corner, the optimist in me has to presume the Academy knows better than to reward Mirren for doing little more in The Last Station than smashing dishware and bellowing as though she were directed by a decibel meter.
NOMINEES: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria, Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
BEST ACTOR
IN: Viggo Mortensen, The Road
OUT: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
As with the Best Picture category, nothing against Jeremy Renner! His performance was brilliant, and he is the soul of The Hurt Locker. Alas, we should all know never to put anything past Harvey Weinstein this time of year, and if he and Daniel Day-Lewis are going to have to eat it here on Nine, Mortensen is ready -- and safely familiar enough to voters -- to sneak in for that fifth nomination. Colin Firth alone simply isn't enough.
NOMINEES: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Viggo Mortensen, The Road
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
IN: Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
OUT: Penelope Cruz, Nine
As always with the Supporting categories, who f'ing knows? Aside from Mo'nique and the ladies of Up in the Air, the last two spots are ultimately up for grabs between five Weinstein muses (Laurent, Cruz, Diane Kruger, Julianne Moore and Marion Cotillard) and The Messenger's Samantha Morton, an Academy semi-darling with two previous nominations of her own behind her. I'd opt for Laurent just because of Basterds' success at the SAG Awards, where she landed in the Lead-actress category while campaigning here for Supporting. Failing that, Cruz is an afterthought compared to Morton, who probably has just as much of a shot of picking up her third Oscar nod as Laurent does of earning her first. In other words: Flip a coin.
NOMINEES: Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds, Mo'nique, Precious; Julianne Moore, A Single Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
IN: Alfred Molina, An Education
OUT: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
This one isn't as challenging as Supporting Actress, if only because A) Christoph Waltz has had the award locked up since Cannes '09, B) Harvey has no one else to campaign against him and C) the Academy will reward Molina for his officious father figure before it tacks on another one of the creeps/spooks/misanthropes for which the category has increasingly been known over the years. Unless the Academy thinks it's recognizing Tucci for Bones AND Julia & Julia, in which case: Why not just give him the call for the latter, and forget Peter Jackson's afterlife folly?
NOMINEES: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Alfred Molina, An Education, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds