Your Movieline crew is preparing to brave the snow, swag and spectacle of the 2010 Sundance Film Festival, which can mean only one thing: Reckless predictions of this year's titles most likely to ignite a distribution bidding war. Granted, Sundance isn't the market it was 10 years ago (or even five years ago); few buyers have any real money to lavish on acquisitions, and a "bidding war" today might mean a producer strings out a few interested parties overnight for a million-dollar (or less) deal. It could mean a couple cable channels scrapping over a documentary. Or, in more traditional style, it could mean buyers fighting to release the one where Kristen Stewart plays a hooker. Anything goes!
For the record, this isn't simply a catalog of star allure trolling for big buys (e.g. The Romantics, The Kids Are All Right) or the films necessarily having high-percentage shots of leaving Park City with a deal (e.g. The Extra Man, The Killer Inside Me). Instead, it's a fistful of educated guesses based on five wholly unseen films (some of which may turn out to completely suck), their casts and other principals, program descriptions, advance buzz (if any), social/cultural context and potential audiences. In other words: Pure speculation. Would you have it any other way?
[In alphabetical order]
· Blue Valentine
WHAT IT'S ABOUT: A couple (Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams) on the downslope of a marriage attempts to rekindle some of the spark that began their relationship -- a period framed in flashbacks.
UPSIDE: That cast! That drama! Gosling's reunion with his Half Nelson producers and cinematographer implies he'll turn in something awards-worthy, and Williams's performance -- matched with her own tormented relationship history -- will likely be a publicity magnet.
DOWNSIDE: An intense young cast means little if first-time filmmaker Derek Cianfrance can't harness them into something beyond abject Sundance melodrama.
POTENTIAL BUYERS: Sony Classics, Focus Features, Apparition
HOW MUCH? $3 million.
· Buried
WHAT IT'S ABOUT: A civilian contractor (Ryan Reynolds) in Iraq is kidnapped and buried alive, with only a cell phone, a lighter and about 90 minutes to save himself before suffocating.
UPSIDE: Reynolds is coming off a terrific year in high-visibility hits (X-Men Origins: Wolverine, The Proposal), and come on: Who wouldn't want a crack at distributing the Ryan Reynolds-trapped-in-a-coffin movie?
DOWNSIDE: In the end, it is just the Ryan Reynolds-trapped-in-a-coffin movie. Despite a cast that also lists Samantha Mathis and Stephen Tobolowski, I'm told that Reynolds is indeed the only one onscreen in the film. Too much Ryan?
POTENTIAL BIDDING WARRIORS: Lionsgate, Magnet, Screen Gems
HOW MUCH? A little north of $1 million, maybe more if Screen Gems -- Sony's genre label, and not generally a huge fest buyer -- gets involved.
· The Company Men
WHAT IT'S ABOUT: A corporate hot shot (Ben Affleck) and his peers attempt to come to grips with his downsizing.
UPSIDE: In addition to Affleck, first-time feature director John Wells (best known for writing and co-producing a zillion episodes of ER) has Tommy Lee Jones, Chris Cooper and Kevin Costner set to deliver the dramatic chops in a story as topical as any at Sundance.
DOWNSIDE: Could be too politically on-the-nose for most buyers, especially if Wells's small-screen gifts don't translate to the cinema.
POTENTIAL BUYERS: Summit, Overture, The Weinstein Company
HOW MUCH? $5 million, maybe up to $6 million if the critics buy into it.
· Hesher
WHAT IT'S ABOUT: A 13-year-old boy whose mother recently died befriends a batshit anarchist (Joseph Gordon-Levitt). Chaos ensues.
UPSIDE: Natalie Portman co-stars. Enough said.
DOWNSIDE: Are audiences ready to buy into Gordon-Levitt as a stringy-haired, sociopathic source of madness?
POTENTIAL BUYERS: Fox Searchlight, Magnolia, Lionsgate
HOW MUCH? Not a penny more than $2.5 million.
· Welcome to the Rileys
WHAT IT'S ABOUT: A couple (James Gandolfini and Melissa Leo) mourning the death of their teenage daughter in dramatically different ways attempt to rebuild their lives.
UPSIDE: Jake Scott's feature directorial debut is all class, with the executive-producer imprimatur of father Ridley Scott and uncle Tony (not to mention Ridley's collaborator Steven Zaillian) and a cast featuring James Gandolfini, Melissa Leo and Kristen Stewart as a teenaged prostitute in New Orleans. OK, mostly all class.
DOWNSIDE: Could turn out to be this year's The Greatest, which fizzled at Sundance '09 with a similar story line and Big Actor Moments cranked to 11.
POTENTIAL BUYERS: Overture, Fox Searchlight, Lionsgate
HOW MUCH? The bidding starts at $4.5 million.
Keep score this week and next at Movieline, where we'll report the latest deals as they happen. And feel free to suggest your own bidding-war candidates in the comments.