Fall Pilot Season '09 is rapidly drawing to a close, and having already sated the cancellation gods with Ashton Kutcher's sacrificial CW series, The Beautiful Life, it is only a matter of a few crummy Nielsen numbers before networks start mercy-killing their latest rating weaklings. Fortunately for us, TVbytheNumbers released its annual cancellation forecast this afternoon, based on their seasoned Renew/Cancel Index. So let's take a look at the programs, new and old, that are already falling away from the pack and risking death before May 2010.
Each season, TVbytheNumbers applies its Renew/Cancel Index to all of the prime-time scripted programs on network television to predict which are most likely to be cut from that network's line-up. The index formula is relatively simple ("Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating") and is listed in parentheses beside each program below. The lower the Index, the closer the show is to cancellation. While most of the cancellation predictions are expected (Have you seen Three Rivers?), others are more (I'll say it) pleasantly surprising (Parks & Recreation).
ABC
1. Hank (.68)
2. Castle (.73)
3. the forgotten (.74)
CBS
1. Three Rivers (.63)
2. Cold Case (.72)
CW
1. The Beautiful Life (.49)
2. Melrose Place (.80)
FOX
1. Til Death (.26)
2. Dollhouse (.31)
3. Brothers (.31)
NBC
1. Law & Order (.45)
2. Parks & Recreation (.68)
3. Mercy (.86)
ยท Don't Get Attached To Hank [TVbytheNumbers]