In addition to the iPod and the hybrid car, one of the most important inventions of our lifetime is the ongoing late night talk show war. Pre-1990, the media had very little to write about when it came to late night network programming: there was Johnny Carson, followed by David Letterman and then whatever else was on. But since the Succession Crisis of the early '90s, and Bill Carter's The Late Shift book/movie you can't even find a Letterman puff piece that doesn't include a discussion of ratings. Not that many people even watch late night television, but the battle for those third shift workers and college kids rages on, with all sides constantly declaring victory.
If this is a war, then our main source for intelligence about the combatants is the propaganda of the networks themselves. Whenever Letterman has a great night in the ratings (e.g. Paul McCartney's appearance last Wednesday) it's a moment of triumph, not just for good folks who work at that show, but for the CBS Paramount motherland.
Last Wednesday/Paul McCartney night, Letterman pulled 4.4 million viewers vs. Conan's 2.5 million viewers (compared to Jay Leno's average 4.6 million nightly viewers). NBC compensated for their overall defeat by touting Conan's victory among viewers aged 18-49, claiming this as the more important number since "advertisers pay a premium to reach youthful audiences."
CBS' chief researcher, David Poltrack, responded with, "We feel we've got the momentum going for us right now and we feel very confident," a sentiment that reinforces the rumor that CBS executives are hoping that Letterman can claim first place in the fall.
Meanwhile, NBC's top late-night executive, Rick Ludwin, released a statement that reiterated Conan's young demographic coup: "In fact, he's doubling the competition in the younger half of that group. It's going to take months and years for the ultimate ratings tale to be told but so far, we're very pleased at how younger viewers are clearly shifting to Conan." And besides, Leno's return "is going to help" with late night-viewers.
USA Today tried to get to the bottom of Conan's 3 million-plus ratings slide since his Tonight Show debut by talking to the actual viewers, like David Greer of Frankfurt, KY, who says "I tried Conan after Jay left but just can't get into his brand of humor." Michael Ritchason of Pekin, IL., is quoted in the same article as saying that although he was never a Leno-fan, he's caught "a lot more episodes of The Tonight Show now with Conan at the helm."
If you look at the way Letterman and Conan answer ratings questions about their shows, they both tend to deflect or play down the idea that numbers matter. Evidence of this can be found in Conan's weirder bits or Letterman's obscure bookings of his old comedy friends (last night's Jeff Altman appearance). Those are the little moments that make late night so enjoyable, when it's obvious that the hosts might be enjoying themselves despite the firefight raging around them.